Forecast by energy consultants: Falling prices for heat pumps expected

Experts assume that the delivery bottlenecks for heat pumps will ease in the medium term. An oversupply is to be expected in as little as two years. Prices could then drop significantly.

The heat pump business is experiencing an unprecedented boom. The production of devices in Germany increased by almost 50 percent in the first three quarters of 2022 compared to the previous year. Due to the high demand, there are delivery problems and sometimes high price surcharges; Experts speak of a “seller’s market”.

However, the national chairman of the energy consultant association GIH, Jürgen Leppig, expects the market to relax in two years. There will be an oversupply and falling prices are to be expected. The existing subsidy for heat pumps with up to 40 percent of the purchase price is also sufficient. “The state is currently promoting heating more than the building envelope,” says Leppig.

Staff shortages among craftsmen

Die Federal government plans to install more climate-friendly heating systems rates Leppig as the right step, but still sees hurdles such as a lack of personnel and competence among heating engineers. “Many heating engineers are fully booked for months.” But Leppig believes that the staff shortages in the trades should ease. “Since new residential construction has collapsed, capacities are currently being created.”

However, funding for people on low incomes will be a sticking point. There is an awful lot of uncertainty, says Leppig. “People are calling and asking, what do I do with my poorly constructed 1950’s house?” The need for advice from energy consultants is huge.

Expert advises against gas or oil heating

Energy consultant Leppig recommends owners not to install any new gas or oil heating until the end of the year. “With the rising CO2 price of fossil fuels, it’s not worth it.”

The federal government’s plans for the Building Energy Act, presented at the beginning of the week, mean an “end in installments” for conventional oil and gas heating systems in Germany anyway. According to this, from 2024 every newly installed heating system should be operated with 65 percent renewable energies. Then, for example, heat pumps, solar thermal systems or hybrid systems consisting of heat pumps and gas heating have to be installed. Existing oil and gas heaters can continue to be operated, broken heaters can be repaired.

Exception rules and transitional periods planned

The 65 percent requirement also does not apply to homeowners over the age of 80 when installing new heating systems. The new law only applies if their house is inherited or sold – with a transitional period of two years. A hardship case exception is also provided if the building value and investment sums are not in an appropriate relationship.

In addition, there is no commitment to heat pumps as an alternative to oil and gas heating. Energy consultant Leppig welcomes the technology-open approach of allowing hybrid systems or solar thermal systems in addition to heat pumps. In practice, however, the heat pump will dominate.

Still disagreement in the traffic light about help

The Economics Ministry estimates that the installation of more climate-friendly heating systems will cost citizens more than nine billion euros a year by 2028. Against this background, the Haus & Grund owners’ association has warned of a “financial overload” for owners. “For most properties, the Building Energy Act offers neither technology-open nor affordable solutions,” said Association President Kai Warnecke.

According to the planned new building energy law, the replacement of the heating system is to be subsidized by the state – but the exact amount and design is still open. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Construction, the state and association hearing on the amendment to the law began on Monday – government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann said they had “until Easter”. The goal is a cabinet decision in April. SPD general secretary Kevin Kühnert said that “it will be complicated” until the final draft of the building energy law.